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I woke up this morning to this text message:
"What do you think of the new VP Palin?"
Given that I have the day off today, I didn't wake up early to watch the news. So I assumed my friendly text message had been mistaken, and that Palin actually was supposed to be Pawlenty. So imagine my surprise to pull up my computer and find that John McCain selected Alaska's Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate.
Some quick facts on Sarah Palin: she's 44, she's a staunch social conservative that has a reformist image, and she has been in office for under two years. Prior to that, she served as the mayor of a 5,469 resident Alaskan city called Wasilla, where about one third of residents commute to Anchorage every day for work. Wasilla was founded in 1917, largely as a staging site for gold mining that was occurring at the Kantishna Gold Mining area near Mount McKinley. Incorporated in 1973, the city continues in its long mining history with Wasilla's current role in the Alaskan oil industry.
Palin's stance on ethics reform - notably, with her vocal critiques of the "Bridge to Nowhere" and indicted Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens - earned her a position as somebody outside the party status quo, but her staunch social conservatism has helped her rise to the governorship. Ethics reform was the centerpiece of her electoral campaign, but she took on the oil industry, raising taxes on oil company profits that led to large budget surpluses statewide. She's popular, beautiful, and young - and apparently pretty tough.
So on the surface, some of the elements of this choice are fairly brilliant. Like I mentioned yesterday, a surprise pick was the only way to detract from Obama's speech last night (which, by the by, I'll have a post on later. I'm going to have to think about how I want to attack it though). People will spend all weekend figuring out everything there is to know about Sarah Palin - and all of that distracts from the policy proscriptions Obama laid out.
It appears as though McCain has staked his election on energy. Palin is a huge addition to the ticket if McCain can control the narrative to focus on drilling and energy planning - but the question remains as to whether he can successfully steal it away from the Democrats. They coopted energy policy earlier this summer, but I'm not sure they'll be able to hold the issue.
Palin is a pro-life, life long member of the NRA. She's already started to energize the base on some of the issues - just check out the response at National Review. Her oldest son is about to go to Iraq. She has another child with downs syndrome. Conservatives will love her.
I don't think Palin locks up the female vote, however, as much as she is going to try. She noted Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton in her first speech in Dayton. Initially, I think a lot of women will be entranced by Palin - she's a good speaker and a charming person. People will want to know about her story, and I think a lot of women will admire Palin's background. She's a mother of five and a professionally accomplished, intelligent woman.
But I hope most Clinton Democrats will likely see this for what it is - electioneering. Pandering to the Clinton vote in perhaps the most obvious way yet. And Palin's big downside for those voters is that the crux of her qualifications are her social conservative credentials. All we're going to hear for a few days is her pro-life, pro-guns, pro-drilling platform - which SHOULD, if people have any good sense, completely negate any pickup she would get among former Clinton voters. They just simply won't agree with her, and Palin is going to have to talk A LOT about what she stands for in order to introduce herself to voters.
And some thoughts here - the most vocal critique of this pick will be that she undercuts John McCain's experience argument. I think there is a lot of truth to this. But at the same time, the Obama camp cannot really take her to task on this without risking their own candidate. If Obama or his surrogates come out swinging on her inexperience, McCain will flip that issue on them faster than you can imagine. They'll point to her executive experience as a more important indicator of her ability to lead as POTUS, and they'll slam Barack Obama for his lack of executive experience. And frankly, that is a weaker stance for Obama as he resides at the top of the ticket.
* * *
But beyond that - come on. She's a 44 year old woman from ALASKA. No offense to Alaska, but Alaskans live a bit differently than everybody else in the country. They get oil revenues paid to them by the state government. They live an entirely different socio-economic situation, with an entirely different populace, than the vast, vast majority of the country.
Are we really ready to put a 44 year old governor from Alaska a breath away from the presidency? If - heaven forbid - there was something that prevented a 72 year old John McCain from serving, are we okay with Sarah Palin going toe to toe with Vladimir Putin? Does Sarah Palin know anything about foreign policy? Does Sarah Palin know anything about what it is like to live in a city like Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta or Miami? What does Sarah Palin know about immigration and the economy?
I applaud McCain for his gall. But her biggest downsides are exactly the problems that Barack Obama has needed 18 months or more to try and overcome - and essentially is still trying to overcome. Who is she, what does she believe, where does she come from, how can she represent us on the national stage?
Sarah Palin WILL NOT be able to do this in just over 60 days. The former mayor of a town of 5,500 people will now have to give speeches and debate on a national stage, on international questions that she has not been forced to address at any time in her career. She'll have to debate the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, the Iraeli-Palestinian conflict and more with one of the foremost foreign policy experts in the Democratic party. Questions will linger about her readiness when everybody goes into the ballot box.
Yes, McCain is on the top of that ticket - but JOHN MCCAIN IS 72 YEARS OLD. Maybe without knowing it, McCain just injected his age into the debate in the biggest possible way. Voters are now forced to think about what would happen if something were to prevent John McCain from serving. This is not a vice presidential candidate that has a lock on the ability to lead as POTUS - and that was not a narrative that John McCain wanted.
Ultimately - this rests on Sarah Palin. If, somehow, Sarah Palin can pull this off - she will be one of the most important political figures in the history of the country. The first female vice president, a change agent with a pedigree firmly outside of the Washington establishment - and a woman that took on and bested one of the best Democratic tickets in memory.
And if she can't, she'll become the mistake that sank the McCain campaign.
Some quick facts on Sarah Palin: she's 44, she's a staunch social conservative that has a reformist image, and she has been in office for under two years. Prior to that, she served as the mayor of a 5,469 resident Alaskan city called Wasilla, where about one third of residents commute to Anchorage every day for work. Wasilla was founded in 1917, largely as a staging site for gold mining that was occurring at the Kantishna Gold Mining area near Mount McKinley. Incorporated in 1973, the city continues in its long mining history with Wasilla's current role in the Alaskan oil industry.
Palin's stance on ethics reform - notably, with her vocal critiques of the "Bridge to Nowhere" and indicted Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens - earned her a position as somebody outside the party status quo, but her staunch social conservatism has helped her rise to the governorship. Ethics reform was the centerpiece of her electoral campaign, but she took on the oil industry, raising taxes on oil company profits that led to large budget surpluses statewide. She's popular, beautiful, and young - and apparently pretty tough.
So on the surface, some of the elements of this choice are fairly brilliant. Like I mentioned yesterday, a surprise pick was the only way to detract from Obama's speech last night (which, by the by, I'll have a post on later. I'm going to have to think about how I want to attack it though). People will spend all weekend figuring out everything there is to know about Sarah Palin - and all of that distracts from the policy proscriptions Obama laid out.
It appears as though McCain has staked his election on energy. Palin is a huge addition to the ticket if McCain can control the narrative to focus on drilling and energy planning - but the question remains as to whether he can successfully steal it away from the Democrats. They coopted energy policy earlier this summer, but I'm not sure they'll be able to hold the issue.
Palin is a pro-life, life long member of the NRA. She's already started to energize the base on some of the issues - just check out the response at National Review. Her oldest son is about to go to Iraq. She has another child with downs syndrome. Conservatives will love her.
I don't think Palin locks up the female vote, however, as much as she is going to try. She noted Geraldine Ferraro and Hillary Clinton in her first speech in Dayton. Initially, I think a lot of women will be entranced by Palin - she's a good speaker and a charming person. People will want to know about her story, and I think a lot of women will admire Palin's background. She's a mother of five and a professionally accomplished, intelligent woman.
But I hope most Clinton Democrats will likely see this for what it is - electioneering. Pandering to the Clinton vote in perhaps the most obvious way yet. And Palin's big downside for those voters is that the crux of her qualifications are her social conservative credentials. All we're going to hear for a few days is her pro-life, pro-guns, pro-drilling platform - which SHOULD, if people have any good sense, completely negate any pickup she would get among former Clinton voters. They just simply won't agree with her, and Palin is going to have to talk A LOT about what she stands for in order to introduce herself to voters.
And some thoughts here - the most vocal critique of this pick will be that she undercuts John McCain's experience argument. I think there is a lot of truth to this. But at the same time, the Obama camp cannot really take her to task on this without risking their own candidate. If Obama or his surrogates come out swinging on her inexperience, McCain will flip that issue on them faster than you can imagine. They'll point to her executive experience as a more important indicator of her ability to lead as POTUS, and they'll slam Barack Obama for his lack of executive experience. And frankly, that is a weaker stance for Obama as he resides at the top of the ticket.
* * *
But beyond that - come on. She's a 44 year old woman from ALASKA. No offense to Alaska, but Alaskans live a bit differently than everybody else in the country. They get oil revenues paid to them by the state government. They live an entirely different socio-economic situation, with an entirely different populace, than the vast, vast majority of the country.
Are we really ready to put a 44 year old governor from Alaska a breath away from the presidency? If - heaven forbid - there was something that prevented a 72 year old John McCain from serving, are we okay with Sarah Palin going toe to toe with Vladimir Putin? Does Sarah Palin know anything about foreign policy? Does Sarah Palin know anything about what it is like to live in a city like Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta or Miami? What does Sarah Palin know about immigration and the economy?
I applaud McCain for his gall. But her biggest downsides are exactly the problems that Barack Obama has needed 18 months or more to try and overcome - and essentially is still trying to overcome. Who is she, what does she believe, where does she come from, how can she represent us on the national stage?
Sarah Palin WILL NOT be able to do this in just over 60 days. The former mayor of a town of 5,500 people will now have to give speeches and debate on a national stage, on international questions that she has not been forced to address at any time in her career. She'll have to debate the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Georgia, the Iraeli-Palestinian conflict and more with one of the foremost foreign policy experts in the Democratic party. Questions will linger about her readiness when everybody goes into the ballot box.
Yes, McCain is on the top of that ticket - but JOHN MCCAIN IS 72 YEARS OLD. Maybe without knowing it, McCain just injected his age into the debate in the biggest possible way. Voters are now forced to think about what would happen if something were to prevent John McCain from serving. This is not a vice presidential candidate that has a lock on the ability to lead as POTUS - and that was not a narrative that John McCain wanted.
Ultimately - this rests on Sarah Palin. If, somehow, Sarah Palin can pull this off - she will be one of the most important political figures in the history of the country. The first female vice president, a change agent with a pedigree firmly outside of the Washington establishment - and a woman that took on and bested one of the best Democratic tickets in memory.
And if she can't, she'll become the mistake that sank the McCain campaign.
1 comments:
good stuff
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